While the mainstream media is attempting to convince America that the November election has already been decided and Joe Biden is set to pick up 400 electoral college votes, a forecaster that has correctly predicted 24 out of 26 past presidential elections is giving very different information.
Which should come as no surprise if you cast your mind back to the 2016 election and remember the media claimed Hillary Clinton had a “98.1% chance” and in some cases “more than 99% chance” of winning the presidency.
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Which of course was proved gloriously incorrect and proved the mainstream media are 1) more than capable of getting things completely, mind-bendingly wrong, and 2) operate as little more than the PR arm of the Democrat Party around election time.
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Stony Brook University political science professor Helmut Norpoth correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election using this model and says battleground state polls in 2016 were “way off.”
Now he’s saying that the media are getting it completely wrong all over again in 2020. According to Professor Norpoth, despite what the media are telling you, the Democrats are ailing and are set to be wiped out in November and Trump is on course for reelection in a landslide.
“I am predicting that Donald Trump has a 91% chance of being reelected,” professor Norpoth told Fox News this week.
“How do you imagine CNN could come up with a model that could project 400 electoral votes for Biden?” Lou Dobbs asked Norpoth.
“I don’t go by opinion polls, I go by the primary elections, and in those primary elections, especially the early ones, Donald Trump did very well and Joe Biden struggled in New Hampshire where he came in fifth. These early primaries, these early votes, provide a very powerful metric for predicting what is going to happen in November.“
“Joe Biden had a struggle where he came in fifth with single digits and I don’t know of any presidential candidate who polled so poorly to go on and win in November.”