A bombshell Reuters poll shows the GOP up a staggering six points, almost guaranteeing them a landslide victory in the November midterms.
As a result of the poll, experts are now overwhelmingly skeptical about the Democrats’ ability in winning back the House – something every media outlet was certain of just months ago.
Townhall.com reports: Color me a bit skeptical, and these numbers will bounce around regardless, but Republicans haven’t led on this question in any major in roughly two years, so it’s worth flagging.
What explains this see-saw back toward Republicans? As someone once said, it’s the economy, stupid:
Gallup: 67% of Americas believe that now is a good time to find a quality job in the U.S., the highest % in 17 years of Gallup polling. Optimism about the availability of good jobs has grown by 25 percentage points since Donald Trump was elected president.https://t.co/E2pkBmbn6h
— STEW 🇺🇸🐶 ⚾️ 🚘 (@StewSays) May 21, 2018
If you’re keeping track at home, we’ve hit a 11-year high, a 13-year high, and a 17-year high on overall or economic national outlook in three distinct polls published over the last week or so. That said, it would be insane for Republicans to feel even remotely assured that their majorities will remain intact after November. Improved polling and stronger presidential approval numbers are undoubtedly significant data points, but those strides could be mitigated or wiped out by a strong Democratic intensity gap (via Axios):
A new NBC News/WSJ poll reveals that 66% of Democrats have a “high level of interest” in this fall’s midterm elections — compared to 49% of Republicans. Flashback: This is a mirror image of Republican enthusiasm ahead of the 2010 midterms, which resulted in a Tea Party sweep in Congress. At that time, the same NBC/WSJ poll showed that 66% of Republicans had a “high level of interest” compared to 49% of Democrats.
To avoid leaving you on too much of a down note, here’s the latest on the Democratic National Committee’s continued fundraising woes:
— NTK Network (@NTKNet) May 21, 2018
Party Fundraising →
•Apr 2018: $13.0M
•2018 Cycle: $184.5M
•Cash on Hand: $43.8M
•Record for an April in a midterm year
•Apr 2018: $7.9M
•2018 Cycle: $95.6M
•Cash on Hand: $8.7M
•Worst April in a midterm year since 2006 pic.twitter.com/3TE0M2tLqk
— Fox News Research (@FoxNewsResearch) May 21, 2018
People can argue that this doesn’t matter too much, but a robust and well-funded party apparatus can really pump a lot of help into a lot of key races. On the other hand, since this is the DNC’s worst election-year fundraising month since 2006, we probably shouldn’t overlook…what happened in 2006. UPDATE II — Ahem:
BREAKING: For the first time in a long while, Cook Political Report moves 4 races — all in the GOP's direction. All about problematic primaries for Dems. https://t.co/FWJPPTrtkF
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) May 22, 2018
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